How we think about healthcare and biotech.
Research notes, sample work products, and methodology pieces from MCS Advisory and CatalystIQ. Calibrated against actual closed transactions, not theoretical frameworks.
Calls on the record. Followed in public.
We publish investment calls with explicit theses, probability-weighted targets, and full return decomposition — then we track them. The two highlighted entries below are tracked calls; the rest of the cards are research notes and reference downloads.
Esperion (ESPR) Conservative Valuation Note — Vindicated by $3.16 Buyout
Our conservative DCF + comparable-transactions framework projected ESPR fair value at $3.01–$3.50 over a Q3–Q4 2026 horizon. On May 1, 2026, Archimed-managed Essence Parent Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire Esperion at $3.16 cash per share plus CVR up to $100M in milestones — landing within 5% of our Q3 conservative target, two quarters earlier than the model's organic re-rating thesis. Three Wall Street firms (Piper Sandler, Cantor Fitzgerald, Jefferies) re-rated to $3.16–$3.28 price targets within days of the announcement. The work demonstrates CatalystIQ's institutional-grade rNPV + comparable-transactions methodology applied to a real, public, dated outcome.
Strategic Asset Allocation Q1 2026 — 15-Holding Scorecard
A 15-holding institutional-grade strategic asset allocation built May 1, 2026. Every position has its own investment thesis, scenario-weighted six-month target (Bull/Base/Bear/Tail), and full return decomposition (income + EPS growth + multiple change − fees). Two big winners (SMH semis on AI capex, IWN small-cap value on OBBBA expensing) are running well ahead of even the Bull case. Two contrarian sleeves (GLD gold, EWZ Brazil) are below their bear-case bands. The discipline is to honor the six-month horizon — no rotations between quarterly refreshes. Next update: August 2026.
Med Spa Platform — Market Opportunity & Operating Proforma
The investor briefing companion deck for a 7-physician med spa platform formation. Full work-product caliber: national-to-metro market sizing methodology (0.765% applied scaling factor from national procedure data), addressable demand analysis (194,476 procedures/yr at a $475–$2,250 price spectrum), consumer behavior decomposition (decision drivers, repeat intent, satisfaction by service), and a three-year operating proforma covering capital structure ($408K equipment, capital lease + TI funds + equity injection), full FY26–FY28 income statement, and Year-2 MD distribution doubling ($78K → $142K). Illustrative throughout. This is the shape of analytical work MCS Advisory delivers on healthcare M&A, fractional CFO, and platform formation engagements.
Behavioral Health Seed Raise — Market Opportunity & VC-Method Returns
A representative transaction-advisory work product for a seed-stage capital raise in integrative behavioral health. Shows the full build: macro-to-addressable market sizing, a capital-efficient B2B distribution architecture, a five-year proforma with margin bridge and self-funding inflection, capital staging that minimizes peak cash drawn, and an investor-return analysis benchmarked against the Standard VC (Sahlman) Method rather than an asserted IRR. Anonymized and illustrative throughout — no client, partner, or proprietary model details. This is the shape of work MCS Advisory delivers on VC raises and capital-event preparation.
Q1 2026 S&P 500 Earnings Update
Sixth straight double-digit EPS growth quarter for the S&P 500. EPS growth of 13.0% YoY, revenue growth of 9.7%, forward P/E at 19.9. AI capex drives IT semiconductor outperformance (+45.1% sector EPS growth); pharma write-downs weigh on healthcare. Sector earnings breakdown, forward EPS estimates Q2–Q4, valuation context.
Strategic Asset Allocation — The Underlying Memo (34 pp)
The source document underneath our SAA Q1 2026 tracked call. Full institutional-grade deck covering six asset classes, 15 holdings, business cycle positioning, sector hit-rate matrix, risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, Treynor, Jensen's alpha), inflation sensitivity, probability-weighted scenarios, and per-holding 6-month forward model. View the live scorecard →
Financial Analysis Cheatsheet — Ratio Analysis & the Firm
A reference guide to the four critical categories of financial ratio analysis: liquidity, activity, leverage, and profitability. Includes calculation formulas, interpretation guidance, and benchmarking framework. Used in our fractional CFO and transaction advisory engagements to diagnose practice and platform health quickly.
Sangamo (SGMO) Positioning vs. 12 Biotech M&A Transactions
The market is pricing Sangamo Therapeutics at roughly 1.9% of its discounted pipeline rNPV. We built a 12-deal biotech M&A transaction database covering $50B+ in aggregate deal value from November 2025 through May 2026 — gene therapy, rare disease, and biopharma — then calibrated SGMO's positioning against it using rNPV capture rates rather than premium-to-current.
What $1.5B in DoD Healthcare Consolidation Teaches About Private-Sector Integration
Lessons from JTF CAPMED NCR — the $1.5B Joint Task Force consolidation that merged three teaching hospitals — applied to PE-backed multi-site healthcare integration.
The same methodology across every lane.
DCF — Discounted cash flow modeling with sensitivity analysis on growth rates, margins, discount rates, and terminal values. The same framework Wall Street uses, applied with operator judgment.
rNPV — Risk-adjusted Net Present Value for biotech pipelines. Phase-success probabilities, indication-specific TAM, peak-sales modeling, discount rate selection. Calibrated against actual M&A transaction prices, not textbook assumptions.
Sum-of-parts — Asset-by-asset valuation for diversified platforms. Useful when DCF understates value because individual pipeline assets, business units, or geographies have differentiated risk profiles.
M&A reverse-engineering — Working backward from actual closed transaction prices to extract implied multiples, capture rates, and risk premia. The market tells you what real money pays — we listen.
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