A 15-holding portfolio, with every thesis, target, and current scorecard visible.
Our Q1 2026 Strategic Asset Allocation call, built May 1, 2026 with a six-month horizon ending November 1, 2026. Every holding has its own investment thesis, probability-weighted scenario target, and full return decomposition. We publish the model and we track it.
The call has been validated on its core macro thesis — AI capex and small-cap value rotation have played out faster than projected — but the magnitude has exceeded all four scenarios for the semiconductor sleeve.
Two of the four defensive/contrarian sleeves (GLD gold, EWZ Brazil) are below their bear-case bands. The thesis on commodity hedges and EM rotation has not yet materialized. We have not rotated; the discipline is to let the model run its full six-month horizon.
What we believed about the world on May 1, 2026.
Every holding-level target inherits these macro inputs. The probability-weighted scenarios (Bull 20% / Base 50% / Bear 20% / Tail 10%) sit on top.
| Input | Value | Source / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast horizon | 0.5 yr | Six months from May 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026 |
| 3-month T-bill (risk-free) | 3.66% | Used as risk-free in CAPM & ERP calculations |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.30% | Discount rate baseline |
| Equity risk premium (assumed) | 4.50% | ERP applied across equity sleeves |
| S&P 500 EPS growth (2026 consensus) | 13.5% | Bottom-up consensus; sleeve-specific overrides per holding |
| S&P 500 forward P/E (today) | 21.4x | Anchor multiple for scenario decomposition |
| Core PCE YoY | 3.2% | BEA March 2026 release (4/30/26); was 3.0% Feb |
| Headline PCE YoY | 3.5% | BEA March 2026; +0.7pp jump from Feb |
| Fed target | 2.0% | Inflation gap (core PCE − target) = 1.2pp |
| Intra-equity correlation (ρ) | 0.70 | Pairwise correlation assumption for portfolio risk model |
| Equity-bond correlation | 0.20 | Floating-rate bond vs equity, low end of 0.1–0.3 range |
| Equity-gold correlation | 0.10 | Gold treated as near-uncorrelated diversifier |
15 holdings. Every thesis on the record. Every result on the record.
May 1, 2026 entry prices, probability-weighted six-month targets (Nov 2026), and current prices as of June 18–20, 2026. Where current prices are not yet refreshed, we mark the row pending and update at the next quarterly refresh.
| Holding | Wt | May 1 | Nov Tgt | Current | Δ vs Entry | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH AI capex picks-and-shovels — chip suppliers paid as chips ship, not when DCs go live. VanEck Semiconductor ETF. | 12% | $305.20 | $350.04 | $659.88 | +116.2% | Way Ahead |
| RSP Equal-weight broadens the AI rally. Concentration mitigation vs. cap-weight S&P 500. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF. | 12% | $202.65 | $209.70 | $210.14 | +3.7% | At Target |
| IWN Direct beneficiary of OBBBA 100% capex expensing. April tax-refund consumer impulse. iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF. | 10% | $162.50 | $178.91 | $216.90 | +33.5% | Way Ahead |
| ITA Defense moderate-high vol play. Geopolitical premium. iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF. | 10% | $215.40 | $234.10 | $244.51 | +13.5% | Ahead of Target |
| FLOT Floating rate, near-zero duration. Income anchor for the portfolio. iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF. | 10% | $50.92 | $51.92 | — | refresh pending | Q3 Refresh |
| XLE Energy — high-vol sector. Supply discipline thesis with upside skew. Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF. | 6% | $58.85 | $67.68 | $56.30 | −4.3% | Underperforming |
| XLU Utilities — low vol sleeve. AI data-center power demand tailwind. Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF. | 6% | $47.10 | $50.72 | — | refresh pending | Q3 Refresh |
| SCHD Quality dividend, lower volatility. Durable cash flow companies. Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF. | 6% | $28.45 | $30.43 | $31.92 | +12.2% | Ahead of Target |
| MDY Sweet spot for OBBBA expensing. Domestic-revenue concentration. SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF. | 5% | $665.80 | $728.67 | $675.85 | +1.5% | Tracking Slow |
| GLD Gold — moderate-vol diversifier. Debasement and tail-risk hedge. SPDR Gold Shares ETF. | 5% | $425.50 | $441.67 | $384.49 | −9.6% | Underperforming |
| EWC Canada — broadly mirrors S&P vol with FX overlay. Resource exposure. iShares MSCI Canada ETF. | 5% | $47.30 | $51.35 | — | refresh pending | Q3 Refresh |
| INDA India EM premium. Secular growth, demographic dividend. iShares MSCI India ETF. | 5% | $53.80 | $60.66 | $49.58 | −7.8% | Underperforming |
| EWZ Brazil — highest EM vol. Rate-cut and commodity beta. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF. | 4% | $39.40 | $47.70 | $33.89 | −14.0% | Underperforming |
| EWL Switzerland defensive — quality compounders. Lower vol bucket. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF. | 2% | $56.80 | $59.88 | — | refresh pending | Q3 Refresh |
| PFF Preferreds — ~6yr duration. Income kicker; rate-sensitive. iShares Preferred & Income Securities ETF. | 2% | $31.20 | $32.10 | — | refresh pending | Q3 Refresh |
Methodology, in plain English.
Buy-side framework, not retail boilerplate. Each holding gets a thesis, a return decomposition, and a scenario-weighted target. Nothing is taken from a model output without an explicit assumption sitting behind it.
Return Decomposition
Total Return = Income + EPS Growth + Multiple Change − Fees
Every holding gets its six-month total return decomposed into these four drivers. Income comes from SEC yield × horizon. EPS growth from basket consensus × horizon. Multiple change is the scenario-weighted P/E delta. Fees are the prospectus expense ratio × horizon, applied as a drag.
Probability-Weighted Targets
Every holding has four scenarios with explicit probabilities:
Bull (20%): AI rally broadens; 2 Fed cuts; oil normalizes
Base (50%): Modest re-rating; earnings carry the load
Bear (20%): Multiple compression; risk premium rises
Tail (10%): Recession; severe multiple compression
Per-holding P/E targets vary; scenario weights are uniform across the portfolio.
Track, Don't Trade
The call is a six-month strategic asset allocation, not a tactical trading book. We don't rotate between quarterly refreshes. Holdings that move beyond their bear case stay in the portfolio for the full horizon — the discipline is to honor the model and learn from the result, not to chase momentum or capitulate at the trough.
Quarterly refresh schedule: August 2026 · November 2026 (closeout).
Related work on the firm's research desk.
Strategic Asset Allocation — May 2026 Memo
The source document underneath this scorecard. Full investment theses, scenario tables, and per-holding analysis for the same 15-position portfolio. Download →
Insights · Tracked CallsESPR Validated Call — April 2026
Our prior tracked call. Q1 2026 conservative valuation projected $3.01–$3.50; Archimed announced acquisition at $3.16 on May 1, 2026 — within 5% of target. Review the call →
NewsletterGet the quarterly tracker update
We refresh this scorecard at the end of each quarter. Get notified when the August 2026 update publishes. Subscribe →
A confidential conversation, not a sales call.
If the discipline you see in this tracked call is the kind of work you want sitting behind your transaction, your financials, or your investment posture — we'd be happy to talk. No pitch decks. No standardized fee schedule. A conversation.